What is likelihood?
Likelihood (sometimes called probability) is a risk that an event "may" occur. There are many ways to estimate likelihood – in our feature, we suggest you ‘score’ the likelihood of it occurring from 1 (remote) to 5 (highly probable.)
How to quantify likelihood?
Likelihood ‘should’ change very little once you have considered and appraised it. For example, the likelihood of the sun hitting the earth ‘should’ in theory change very little once you’ve made your initial assessment of the likelihood... However, when starting your risk journey, it can be hard to quantify what the likelihood should be. For our Risk Register feature, we have adopted the 5x5 scoring matrix most commonly in use in private and non-profit organisations (for example, as recommended by the Charity Commission in the UK). This suggests rating likelihood using the following thinking:
Description | Score | Impact on Organisation's service and reputation |
Remote | 1 | May only occur in exceptional circumstances |
Unlikely | 2 | Expected to occur in a few circumstances |
Possible | 3 | Expected to occur in some circumstances |
Probable | 4 | Expected to occur in many circumstances |
Highly probable | 5 | Expected to occur frequently and in most circumstances |
Use this as a simple guide to quantify your Risks. It isn’t a precise science – the key thing is that you are able to prioritise the threats that face you and devise strategies to combat them.